Feb 25
What Will Win at a Nailbiter Oscars? AP's Film Writers Make Their Predictions
Jake Coyle and Lindsey Bahr READ TIME: 10 MIN.
Best Director
Nominees: Jacques Audiard, "Emilia Pérez"; Sean Baker, "Anora"; Brady Corbet, "The Brutalist"; James Mangold, "A Complete Unknown" Coralie Fargeat, "The Substance"
BAHR: Sean Baker is the most likely winner here after the Directors Guild of America Awards. But it has happened that the DGA winner does not go on to win the Oscar, and as recently as 2020 when Sam Mendes lost the Oscar to Bong Joon-ho. But "Anora" is perhaps closer to "Parasite," both Palme d'Or winners, and I'm not sure there's an obvious second choice in this batch. If Baker isn't the pick, all seem like fair game.
COYLE: I think Baker will win, too, though there's a chance Corbet catches him. All of these nominees are first-timers, a nice infusion of fresh blood in a category often presided over by the old guard. A shame then that neither of the two most thrilling feature filmmaking debuts – RaMell Ross ("Nickel Boys") and Payal Kapadia ("All We Imagine as Light") – made the cut.
Best Documentary
Nominees: "Black Box Diaries"; "No Other Land"; "Porcelain War"; "Soundtrack to a Coup d'Etat"; "Sugarcane"
COYLE: This is a tough category partly because most of my favorite docs of 2024 – "Ernest Cole: Lost and Found," "Will & Harper," "Dahomey," "Daughters" – weren't nominated. The Oscar will likely either go to "No Other Land," the searing on-the-ground chronicle of Israeli occupation in the West Bank, or "Porcelain War," a defiant portrait of keeping art and Ukrainian culture alive in the midst of war. My hunch is "Porcelain War" wins, making it the second straight Ukraine dispatch to win, and a potentially poignant moment given recent policy shifts by President Donald Trump on Ukraine.
BAHR: This is impossible, and I would really like to hear what "Sugarcane" co-director Julian Brave NoiseCat says from the Oscar stage, but I'm going to go with "No Other Land." In addition to being a great film, it's stayed top of mind and in the conversation despite not having a distributor.
